The problem of solving the chaos and complexity of modern science
Kuznetsov. Fundamentals of management
An important step in the development of the methodology of modern science was the formation of "chaos theory". In particular, published in 1987 and widely known in the West book by James Glick "Chaos: the making of a new science" has a significant impact on the development of the methodology of natural and humanitarian Sciences, including the development of management theory.
The issues of learning and solving the problem of chaos is very relevant for the development of the economy, especially the current state of the economy of Russia and countries of the former USSR and Eastern Europe. The pace, depth, and seehasenfest changes in the economy and society, do not know analogues in the modern history of mankind.
According to Glico, the main catalyst of chaos theory was the research scientist meteorologist Adware Lawrence. In the early 60-ies of this century, Lawrence has developed a computer program, which copied the system of the weather conditions. Gaining countless times figures, which represent the initial state of the wind and temperature, Lawrence created as a result of the pattern of the weather. He, like most scientists, believed that a small change in the initial conditions, which he laid in the computer will result to small changes in the evolution of the entire system. To his surprise, he found that even the smallest changes have caused a tremendous change in weather patterns. This is the first conclusion from chaos theory.
Such an effect was challenged as intuition and what meteorologists had previously understood in its science. Intrigued by the mystery of Lawrence of researchers from various fields of science began to experiment with copying other physical systems, and in the end they found identical phenomena. Infinitesimal changes in initial conditions could cause a profound effect on the evolution of the entire system. Take the simple example of water dripping from the faucet. Increase the velocity of the water only slightly and the picture that formed in the fall of the drops will change drastically. Moreover, the pattern formation of drops is changed so that no one can simulate, even heavy-duty supercomputer can't predict when the next drop falls.
That was correct for the weather and for the dripping tap, equally turned out to be true for most physical systems, and economic systems of macro and micro-level.
Understanding that small changes can lead to drastic consequences in the behavior of the system is substantially changed the vision of the scientists of the world. The emphasis on the forecast of emote and management, which was done in the 19th century, paved the way to understanding the power of randomness and chance in the late 20th century.
In practice, the behavior of even relatively simple systems mostly are hard to predict and even more difficult. So, the situation and economic reforms in Russia in the 90-ies.
But this does not mean that chaotic systems have no picture. A second major conclusion of chaos theory is this: despite the apparent random behavior of such systems, certain behavioral "drawings" can be predicted. Because such systems do not cease to exist, certain ways of development of these systems occur quite often. Proponents of the theory of "chaos" is called such paths "strange", "attracting". So, if the meteorologists cannot say with certainty what will be the weather in a specific day in the future, they can calculate the probability of a certain type of weather that may occur. In other words, "weird", "attracting" the ways allow scientists to determine within the broad statistical parameters that apparently the system will do. But they can't allow scientists to determine exactly when the system will do it. The causal precision of traditional physics has been replaced by statistical estimation of the probability.
In addition, the method by which scientists determine the predicted drawing behavior in the system was completely different. Instead of trying to break the system into its component parts and to analyze the behavior of each part separately, i.e. to act as it did in the days of Taylor, many scholars had to learn more holisticheskoy, i.e. a holistic approach. They focus mainly on the dynamics of the entire system. Instead of trying to explain how the order fits into part of this system, they now focus on how the order is the result of the interaction of these parts as a whole. Known theorist in the field of management Luther Gulick in the mid 60-ies wrote about this, that, firstly, people are not as simple as the machine, and secondly, managers have to deal not only with specific employees, but in General with groups, where there are so many social factors that it is difficult just to identify, let alone how to accurately measure their size and importance. And finally, thirdly, and innumerable environmental factors.
Therefore, control theory and the results of scientific research should not be viewed as absolute truth, but as tools.
They help the Manager to predict that in all probability can happen, helping to make a more correct decision.
Understanding systems is the ability to understand basic relationships which affect the behavior of complex systems over time and they should enable managers to "see whole." For example, after several years of tremendous success, the products of one company suddenly lost demand from buyers. Desperately trying to resist senior managers hired more traders and keep trying to sell more of their products. These actions have really increased the sale of products, as was implied, but just for a while. The firm entered a period when its products were in demand, demand falls, and this eventually led to its bankruptcy.
Studying this case, experts determine the source of the fall company in the inability of managers to understand some basic feedback processes. In simple words, there is great demand for products has led to the fact that the company did not deal with the production of goods. Inadequate production meant large amounts of non-fulfillment of orders and long delays in deliveries of goods. Customers lost confidence, and this has led to a drop in the level of sales.
Thus, there is a limited number of such feedback processes that operate in any organization and are called "prototypes". In a sense, this organizational equivalents of "strange attracting" the ways of chaos theory, i.e. the main figures of behavior that occur in all organizations continually.
The history of this company illustrates a number of prototypes, i.e. drawings conduct. One of them experts define as "limits to growth" — i.e., the process of growth creates the conditions for the fall of their own firm. The managers of the company was so concerned with increasing sales and value of sales that they are unable to focus on the real solution to your problem — the expansion of production capacity to control delivery time.
Implementation of the main provisions of the theory of systems, theory of chaos and complexity allows us to formulate the essence of the new approach in the following practical recommendations.
A crucial concept in systems theory is a system of "leverage", i.e. the idea that small, thoughtful action can sometimes cause significant long-awaited improvements.
Just as chaos theory teaches that small changes can have a big impact on the physical system.