Methods of analysis of the external environment
Kuznetsov. Fundamentals of management
In the mid 1980-ies half of large firms have already carried out organizational analysis vneshnei environment. According to Western experts, by the year 2000, 70% of large firms will conduct such an analysis. It should be noted the particular relevance of this issue in modern Russia.
In recent issues of the external environment of the organization and its impact on the management pays a lot of attention, but it would be a mistake to try to analyze and consider all the environmental factors.
Management should limit the consideration to those factors which have a decisive effect on the organization.
One of the tools of such analysis in the West now offer so-called SWOT-analysis. SWOT (CWOT) is the abbreviated word formed from the initial of the English word "power" (capacity), "weakness" (weakness), opportunities (opportunity) and threats (treat). In accordance with this approach to determine the status of the company you should consider the following factors:
- the power — in relation to the external environment;
- weakness in relation to the external environment;
- opportunities arising from the external environment;
threats arising from the external environment.
Then put the tasks on development of the company and to reduce weaknesses to take advantage of opportunities and prevent threats.
In a market economy, the organization is considered as an open system taking into account the influence of the external environment. Changes in the external environment lead to equivalent changes in management, which manifest themselves primarily in the organization of management as a form of existence of the Department. Assessment of environmental factors enables us to compare the condition of a control system with the changed environment. However, such an assessment is extremely difficult.
There are several approaches to this issue. So, Boris Karlof offers to carry out such an analysis on the basis of the scenario description of future circumstances and based on the selection of forecasts and proposals for future events.*
The script is typically used to predict possible structural changes in any industry and the likely competitive situations. Usually it serves as a Foundation for creative discussions for strategic thinking.
Forecasts and proposals on which the script should include all factors relevant to the future of this business.
One of the main advantages of the scenario is that the discussion can be considered as the extreme and most
likely scenarios based on the proposals and projections that are behind the script.
Below is an example script for a single car plant. In scenario an attempt is made to identify the importance of different factors for the development Department of the said enterprise.
Proposals on the main directions of development:
- On the doorstep or on the way out of the recession;
- The purchasing power at current levels;
- Less differentiation in income;
- There will be no sharp changes in oil prices;
- There will be new industrial countries;
- Peace, stability;
East wakes up;
- Strengthening the position of market economy;
- Greater equality between the sexes.
- Higher level of education;
- Healthy lifestyle;
Renaissance (rebirth) of the family;
- Stressful life conditions;
- Environmental pollution;
- Environmental crisis;
- Deep understanding of danger.
Scenario 1993 - 1998
1. The new energy crisis will not, but there is the possibility of increasing energy prices.
2. A deeper understanding of the dangers of environmental pollution, the adoption of related decisions of an environmental nature.
3. Underdeveloped countries now begin to develop its automotive industry and will provide constant pressure on the market in the direction of lower prices.
4. Japan will master production of luxury cars. The emergence of new types of vehicles such as "vans".
5. Will the reduced role of importers, will increase the focus on marketing and market support.
6. Sociological and political factors will indicate the need for clearer lines of action in the field of ecology, care about customers and quality.
7. Overcrowding of large cities are reaching critical limits, which will affect the behavior of citizens: they will refuse to use cars for commuting.
8. A higher degree of concentration and internationalization of media. Advertising therefore becomes more monotonous. The role of television is increasing.
9. Active economic growth, which will be accompanied by a deeper understanding of the need for conservation of resources. This will encourage the production of more economical vehicles than in the late 80-ies.
10. Political factors will contribute to steady growth and offer good opportunities for business development in Eastern Europe.
11. Preference will be given to environmentally friendly means of transport. Environmentally friendly and ergonomic production capacity will be prevailing.
12. In the social sphere will be achieved a greater equality and uniformity of tastes characteristic of the generations of the 50s and 60s years, which will favour the production of more simple and reliable machines without any frills.
The analysis of the external environment can be realized on the basis of the methodology proposed by S. Bolotov in four steps:
1. The choice of sphere of activity, product or service. Determined by trading niche. For this study the volume of sales and the satisfaction of demand is determined by market capacity, as well as the possibility of displacement in the good of others.
2. Assessment of the actions of competitors. Identifies opportunities for competitors to engage in this niche. To this end, we study the work of similar enterprises in technology, research, product quality, costs, methods of supply and sale of products or services.
3. The analysis scheme of the enterprise. At this stage determines the required resources and opportunities in the markets. Studied production technology, opportunities and methods of providing raw materials, materials, equipment, working space, personnel, services and capital.
4. Analysis the General environment of the organization. Determined by importance to the organization external factors of indirect impact.
As a result of the analysis in each stage is to identify quantitative indicators to measure all segments of the external environment.
The analysis must be set separately for the segments of the external environment and separately for each partner. It is necessary to determine primary indicators and assessments.
Source information is collected by experts of the enterprise or by external consultants and completed in a specially designed form. It contains questions that reflect the nature of the relationship with partner, level of knowledge about it. Questionnaires filled out by several experts (best of 5 — 6 people) are handled by averaging the estimates of partial transformation. The results are recorded in the map estimates in the form of twelve indicators: 1) segment 2) area 3) volume of communication, 4) frequency, 5) the potential partner
6) supply ability (orders) 7) assessment of external factors (uncertainty, stability, pace of change),
8) capacity management 9) transport, 10) the level of knowledge of partner 11) the degree of institutional malleability, 12) provision of information.
In some other way evaluated competitors. Experts on the basis of primary information on competitors fill the card evaluation of competitors.
A study by experts external environment allows them to designate so-called "profile" of the modern state of the shared external environment, registering the status of each component. Next, you should determine the past States of these components and to identify on the basis of comparing current conditions with past trends in the external environment. These trends will show, on the one hand, the direction of change, and on the other hand, can show the rate of change, i.e. the step size changes per unit of time.
Along with this work, the experts should assess the uncertainty of the identified conditions and specify the reason for its inherent or the lack of information or it is impossible to obtain accurate information. It is also important to record the precision and certainty of valuation expert or to ascertain the probability of inaccurate assessment. This latter allows to identify the degree of stability assessment of the significance of this factor.
At the final stage of environmental analysis of the previously obtained key performance indicators are being consolidated into one document definition capabilities of the enterprise for the production and marketing of goods or services. It can be divided into the following sections: 1) niche, 2) external environment, 3) assessment of external relations, 4) assessment of the competitors, 5) assessment of their capabilities.
The volume of the niche is characterized by the number and composition of consumers, their areas of deployment, sales channels and the degree of competition.
The General external conditions of the enterprise are characterized by the profile of the modern state of them in your area, trends of external factors, uncertainty evaluation, and stability of the environment and characteristics of the expected changes.
Assessment of the competitors needed to establish the goals of the organization. At the same time, it is necessary to correct the mechanism of Development control. This section must be shown by the potential competitors, their position in the external environment and the dominant factors of competition.
In the process of working on the fifth section, the evaluation of their capabilities must be carefully to figure out the potential of the enterprise and only after that you can complete a full assessment of their capabilities. The clarification potential of an enterprise is based on the analysis of the internal environment of the organization.