The structure of the decision-making process
Kuznetsov. Fundamentals of management
The complex of measures on improvement of the management system is important to the development of the theory of managerial decision-making. Management decisions are made at all levels of management in accordance with functions, duties and rights of managers. The decision-making process associated with the choice of a large number of possible variants is really the best. Management decision is the best way of achieving a goal of production management selected in the process of analyzing several options.
Every Manager in your practice is constantly faced with the necessity of making decisions on a variety of issues. A characteristic feature of any situation related to decision making, is the presence of a large number of options from which to choose the best. The decision — the choice of a course of action of the possible options.
By a solution we understand a prescription for action for a control object (plan, program, instruction, order, etc.). Usually developed several variants of the order. Choosing the best in some sense, we will call decision and the process, including the development of alternatives, the decision — making process.
The best course of action for maximum efficiency is called optimum and the search process of the variant — optimization. Options, the efficiency of which is close to the maximum possible under the given conditions, is called rational or appropriate. The head always tries to find the optimal or at least close to it quasi-optimal (rational) option.
Scientific training and the adoption of optimal management decisions is a complex problem that includes technique, technology, economic-mathematical methods, information theory, logic, sociology, and psychology of human behavior.
Usually the particular decision-making process begins out of nowhere. Even before his Manager has a certain basic substantive and procedural information. Basic information updated in connection with the implementation of earlier decisions, remember a good correlation factors, model making, procedure. On this basis, formed and perfected a certain stereotype of thinking and behavior Manager. It can contain a complex set of behavior programs, which concentrated the collective and personal experience, his motives and installation. All this forms the orientation of the Manager in the light of which he perceives the external environment as a whole and any situation in particular.
The decision-making process involves a series of sequential stages that can be connected to each other in both direct and reverse ties forming an iterative cycle. In specific cases, particularly in the development of a mass of "standard", the individual stages fall out or integrated. Thus the actual number of stages is determined by the problem.
The development process and decision making is carried out in a sequence of stages.
1. Diagnosis of the problem — formulation and problem analysis.
The problem is a complex theoretical or practical issue, study and research. It reflects either the potential to improve the efficiency, or the difference between the current and the desired state of the system, between the existing and the desired system output. The status and output of the production system are characterized using indicators. It usually reflects the name of the problem. For example, if talking about the issue of productivity and staff turnover, it refers to the need for changes in indicators of productivity and staff turnover.
The actual decision-making process starts with obtaining information about the internal and external environment. Determined the accuracy and completeness of the information. The Manager constantly "immersed" in the information environment and receives data for many decisions within management system. It is therefore necessary to filter the data in relation to each separate decision-making process or their class. A particular management decision is based on the analysis of selected information. In the analysis of the information, consider its features. Information that is not amenable to formalization is examined with the help of logical thinking, comparison, analogy, analysis, synthesis, generalization, induction, etc.
For the processing of formalized information widely used quantitative methods: statistical tables, graphs, correlation and regression analysis, the logical-mathematical methods.
Structuring and analysis of information, the totality of objective and subjective factors allows the Manager to determine the degree of importance of the problem and justify the need for its implementation. After identifying the problem, the main task of the Manager and its articulation. From the formulation of the problem depend on important elements of managerial decisions — the definition of goals and objectives.
Identify goal or set of goals that are achieved when the resolution of the problem, allows us to specify the set of tasks, solution of which ensures the achievement of set goals.
2. The formulation of limitations and criteria for decision-making.
Limitations of corrective actions reduce the ability of decision-making. Before proceeding to the next stage of the process, the Manager must impartially determine the path constraints and then to identify alternatives. Some common constraints include: insufficient number of workers with the required qualifications and experience; the need for technology not yet developed or too expensive; the inability to procure resources at reasonable prices, etc. During the study, solutions are usually divided into formalizable, the efficiency criterion which can be expressed cochecton, and informal, i.e. subject to logical analysis. Rationale formalized decisions made using economic and mathematical methods and computational tools. An example is the criterion of maximum profit if you select the production program of the enterprise. This allows you to simulate the decision-making process.
The implementation of solutions, as a rule, is always associated with the consumption of labor, material, energy, financial and other resources. Accordingly, the chosen evaluation criteria for solutions.
As the criteria selection decisions can be made by different parameters: the lowest cost, maximizing production, maximum use of equipment, the value decision from a social point of view, etc. depending on the purpose of the task.
In the event that if decisions are made by one criterion, it is a simple solution. The decision taken on several criteria that are not reducible to one, we will call a complex solution.
3. Formulation and selection of possible solutions.
In the formation of alternatives to the decision, the Manager is always faced with uncertainty. Therefore, a natural extension of structuring data, particularly in the formation of many outcomes is a prediction: the possibility of implementing each option its implementation.
After forecasting Manager capable of potentially many possible ways to allocate desirable, which are determined by the desirability of outcomes. It's not a preference, on the basis of which selects a "best" option.
However, the Manager already defines certain qualitative characteristics cut-off (limit) undesirable options — social constraints, moral motives, etc. of Consecutive imposing new and new restrictions of this kind could significantly narrow the variety of feasible options. Thus, the problem of finding the best solution disintegrates as if into two parts. The first part of the problem is how many possible options to take away the rational, and the second how of a relatively small number of rational options to choose the best.
The selection options are mainly used heuristic methods based on logic.
4. Choosing the best solution.
At the stage of identifying alternatives from a number of desirable solutions selecting the best solution. With this purpose, the end result of the implementation of each option is thoroughly studied and compared with accepted for this problem the criterion (or criteria).
On the comparison of solutions selected the most appropriate for the specific conditions of the option that provides the most effective achievement of the goal. Essentially this is a decision on the issue.