Methods of diagnosis of bankruptcy
The seriousness of the consequences of bankruptcy for its suppliers, part-time, financial institutions, investors, workers employed necessitates the introduction of organizational and economic measures can prevent deep financial crisis. In this important role for the diagnosis of bankruptcy.
Under bankruptcy diagnostics understand the use of aggregate financial analysis methods for early detection of symptoms of the financial crisis on the company and its rapid response to the initial stages in order to reduce the probability of a complete failure of financial entities.
To ensure greater objectivity of the analysis diagnostics bankruptcy domestic enterprises should be based on the following principles:
- Need to combine in the analysis of quantitative and qualitative criteria, that indicate the potential threat of bankruptcy undertakings;
- Consideration of the development of economic cycles in specific areas when determining indicators of crisis in the enterprise;
- A synthesis of international experience in the development of methodological tools diagnosis of bankruptcy and its adaptation to conditions of work and information support domestic enterprises;
- A comprehensive integrated approach to the assessment of the financial condition of companies that have experienced financial difficulties in their work.
The methodological and methodical help financial services insolvent companies providing established in Ukraine Agency for the Prevention of bankruptcy and organizations. This agency developed such documents as the "Method-depth analysis of financial and economic activities of insolvent companies", "Methods of integrated evaluation of investment attractiveness of enterprises and organizations", "Methods of development plans for the restructuring of public enterprises and organizations."
In order to prevent crises Agency recommends a thorough financial analysis of insolvent companies with the help of financial ratios solvency, liquidity and business activity. Detail the method for determining these parameters on the basis of existing reporting forms and their normative values given in section 10.
To avoid subjectivity in determining the signs of crisis on the analysis of financial ratios can be achieved by developing a clear assessment algorithm satisfactory balance sheet structure.
As seen from the scheme, if the structure of the balance on the analysis of the current liquidity ratio (IG,) and coefficient of own working capital (K2) found satisfactory additionally assessed stability of the financial condition of the company by the coefficient of loss of solvency (YA3).
In the system of financial ratios for the early prevention of crises in the world using special generalize (test) indicators threat of bankruptcy. To determine the integral index of probability of bankruptcy method of discriminant analysis. This method is based on the empirical study of financial indicators of a large number of companies, a number of which are bankrupt, and others - is successfully operating in a market environment. In foreign practice, there are many methods for determining the integrated Z-index of the threat of bankruptcy. Some of the most popular approaches to predicting the probability of bankruptcy systematized in tabl.12.1.
The most famous of these models is the model p'yatyfaktorna Altman. Criterion mentioned evaluation of the probability of bankruptcy by this model are in the range of 1.8 to 3.0: